SHRM Leading Indicators of National Employment (LINE)

August 2017 OverviewManufacturingServices
Employment Expectations: In August, the hiring rate will rise in both manufacturing and services compared with a year ago.

Recruiting Difficulty: In July, recruiting difficulty increased in manufacturing and services compared with a year ago.


New-Hire Compensation: In July, the index for new-hire compensation rose in both manufacturing and services compared with a year ago.


Source: August 2017 SHRM LINE Report

Employment Expectations     

In August, hiring rates are expected to rise in both sectors compared with a year ago

In August 2017, employment will grow at 60.6 percent of manufacturing firms and decline at 8.0 percent. The resulting net increasing index of 52.71 (60.6 - 8.0) suggests faster employment growth in manufacturing than in August 2016 (46.7).
In August 2017, employment levels will grow at 49.2 percent of service-sector firms and decline at 8.6 percent of firms, producing a net increasing index of 40.5 (49.2 - 8.6), which suggests more robust service-sector employment growth than in August 2016 (36.9). 

The LINE employment expectations index provides an early indication of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Employment Situation report findings. BLS numbers covering the same time period are released approximately one month after the LINE report.
1 Rounded to the nearest decimal place

Recruiting Difficulty

In July, recruiting difficulty increased compared with a year ago

LINE's recruiting difficulty index measures how difficult it is for firms to recruit candidates to fill the positions of greatest strategic importance to their companies.

Compared with July of last year, in July 2017 the recruiting difficulty index rose by 11.1 points in the manufacturing sector and 6.8 points in the service sector. The LINE new-hire compensation index reported below suggests firms may be responding to this increased recruiting difficulty by increasing starting wages to attract highly qualified individuals to fill key positions.


New-Hire Compensation

In July, new-hire compensation packages were higher than those offered a year ago

In the manufacturing sector, 21.0 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in July 2017 compared with 15.4 percent in July 2016. In the service sector, 25.7 percent of firms reported raising new-hire compensation in July 2017 compared with 15.9 percent in July 2016, with the annual net increase of 11.1 points.
Note: Annual net change is calculated by subtracting the net increase of the same month one year ago from the net increase of the current month.

Source: August 2017 SHRM LINE Report

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